Monday, January 2, 2012 - 7:14pm

Final Iowa Polls

The latest surveys out of Iowa show a three-man race between Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, and Rick Santorum.  The surging Santorum was down in the single digits just two weeks ago, but is now running a strong third and could conceivably pull out the victory tomorrow night. Iowa voters have been begging for an alternative to the liberal Romney and have propelled a number of candidates to the top, only to watch them crash and burn after a proper vetting.  First there was Representative Michelle Bachman, followed by Governor Rick Perry, then Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich, and now the former Pennsylvania Senator has moved into the upper tier.

The average of these five polls reflect a slim 1.7% lead for Romney over Paul.  The mainstream media has done everything in their power to eviscerate Ron Paul's candidacy and his numbers have slipped as a result.  Even though Santorum appears to be about 6% behind Romney on average, the last day of the Des Moines Register poll has him within three percent of the lead and the Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey puts him within two percent of victory.

The smart money is on Mitt Romney to squeak out a win, but he could actually come in third behind Mr. Santorum and Dr. Paul. Remember that Romney performed worse than his poll averages in 2008, while Congressman Paul actually performed better; and that was when Romney was really trying to win the state.  Romney only showed up in Iowa four weeks ago this time, whereas both Santorum and Paul have put in the time and effort in the state.

I could see a scenario where Romney receives 21% of the vote, Paul takes in 22% due to his superior ground operation, and Santorum pulls in 20% with a strong close down the stretch.  Either way, it's going to be a close three-way race and much depends on turnout of independents.  If independents number greater than 30% of the electorate, Dr. Paul likely will win.  If they come in at less than 20% of voters, Paul may slide down.

It looks like Iowa conservatives are attempting to coalesce around Rick Santorum at the expense of Rick Perry and Michelle Bachman.  If they move further in that direction, Santorum could significantly outperform his poll numbers.  I had previously believed Rick Perry would capture third place, but in this ever-changing caucus, his candidacy appears to be fading.

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Tuesday, December 27, 2011 - 10:22pm

Seven Days To Iowa

With only a week left before the Iowa Republican caucus, the candidates are out in full force to scrounge up as many votes as possible.  The latest polls show a dead heat between Texas Congressman Ron Paul and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.  The former Speaker, Newt Gingrich, is running in third place, but fading quickly from his position as frontrunner only weeks ago.  The battle of the so-called second tier candidates shows Rick Perry consistently ahead or even with Michelle Bachman, Rick Santorum, and Jon Huntsman.

Gingrich could easily fall to fourth place as his ground operation is non-existent.  That would open the door for someone from the back of the pack to finish in the top three and propel their candidacy going into the New Hampshire primary.  Three of the last five polls show Perry leading the rest, with one poll reflecting a tie with Santorum and another showing a three-way tie with him and Bachman.  Although Santorum claims to be surging, his numbers do not reflect that sentiment.  Huntsman appears to be completely irrelevant in this state.

I will predict that Rick Perry takes third place and pushes Newt down a notch.  Perry polls in front of Newt in one of the above polls and is within the margin of error in the PPP survey.  Considering Perry is actually making an effort, I submit that the biggest surprise coming out of Iowa will be his rising stature.  Despite his many George Bush-like gaffes, Perry is a personable guy and doesn't appear like a fringe candidate in the way Bachman, Gingrich, and Santorum do.

At the top of the chart, it's a matter of Ron Paul vs. Mitt Romney.  Congressman Paul has faced withering criticism since taking the narrow lead, but his ground game is far superior than any other candidate.  In the 2008 results, Paul did slightly better than his poll average while Mitt Romney fared slightly worse.  Assuming these poll figures hold, I would expect Ron Paul to win by a margin of 3% over Romney.

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Wednesday, December 21, 2011 - 11:14pm

Attacking Ron Paul

Now that Congressman Ron Paul has taken the lead in Iowa, the man is facing an onslaught of attacks from every corner of the political world.  You would expect his rivals to come after him, but the most intense criticism is actually coming from the mainstream media, both on the left and the right.  These groups that completely ignored him are now forced to discuss his candidacy, but only to ridicule and diminish his standing.  From Margaret Carlson to Sean Hannity to Rush Limbaugh, the hostility has gone from 0-60mph in record time.

The war propaganda machine that is Fox News is threatened by Dr. Paul, as they've repeatedly tried to pretend he's not even running for President.  In fact, Fox refused to even list him in the results of a straw poll back in 2008.  Congressman Paul took fifth place in the poll with 9.1% of the vote, but the Fox censors decided he wasn't worthy to be seen when they put this graphic up on their network.

This stunt by Fox was four years ago, but it demonstrates their blatant contempt toward an individual with different a viewpoint.  Of course, Paul placed second in this year's Iowa Straw Poll and is currently the leader in the state, having quickly surpassed a free-falling Newt Gingrich.  Now that Paul is back on the national stage, Fox and friends are hammering away in order to protect their supremacy.

That frontrunner status is why the knives have come out to demonize Paul, but the scary part is where they're coming from.  Even respected journalists like Carlson are spewing their hatred.  In addition, not a minute goes by without some talking-head news anchor claiming that Paul has absolutely zero chance of capturing the Republican nomination.  Way to be impartial.

If you held back his name and asked "experts" if someone was ahead in Iowa, second in New Hampshire, and third nationally in virtually every poll, would he have a chance of winning the nomination?  Every one of them would answer in the affirmative.  However, since his name is Ron Paul and he literally does threaten the establishment (i.e. big government, pro-war), he is immediately discredited as a loon.

Even though I disagree with Paul on a number of issues, I truly hope he wins Iowa and continues to outperform throughout this process.  The Republican party needs to be disrupted and he is the messenger.  They have been led around by clowns on Fox News and tea party extremists for far too long.  It's time Ron Paul showed them the way back to good governance and respectable values.

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Sunday, December 18, 2011 - 10:45pm

Gingrich Slipping

The latest national polling shows that Newt's time at the top may be fading.  Gallup Tracking still has him as the frontrunner, but his lead is now down to a margin of 28-24% over Mitt Romney.  The last Gallup poll taken only a week prior had Gingrich up 10%.  Other data is reflecting a similar trend, as the bombardment of negative ads is having the desired effect of knocking his percentages down.  The primary beneficiary is Romney, as he's been the only candidate to maintain numbers in the 25% range throughout the process.

Iowa also shows Gingrich in trouble, with his lead down to one percent over Ron Paul according to Public Policy Polling (PPP) and Mitt leading him by 3% in the most recent Rasmussen report.  In the deep South, however, the story is much different.  Newt is maintaining a sizeable advantage in South Carolina, with a 19% average margin of victory.  His home state of Georgia gives him a staggering 39% lead and Florida puts him ahead by 18%.

The divergence is predictable in this Republican nominating cycle.  Gingrich is considered much more conservative than Mitt Romney, so it stands to reason that the traditional South is more likely to pick him over a moderate.  Ron Paul will probably win a few smaller states due to his loyal following and Romney should win the moderate regions of the country.  As a result, we could see a protracted battle for the nomination, which is not something Republicans would prefer to avoid at all costs.

However, my belief is that Newt Gingrich is ill-prepared to run for President.  He has virtually no ground operations, he's barely on the airwaves in the early states, and he refuses to make the effort on the early voting states.  His real objective is to get exposure from the debates in order to promote his thirteen published books and make money.  I expect Romney to win this nomination quite comfortably.

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Friday, December 16, 2011 - 10:13pm

Ron Paul's Iran Position

To many Republicans, Ron Paul lost the Iowa caucus last night after his lengthy answer about Iran and whether the U.S. should use military force against the nation.  In most GOP debates, conservatives fall all over themselves pretending to act tough against other sovereign nations.  Such is the case with Iran, who is reportedly trying to obtain nuclear weapons.  Every candidate on stage, with the exception of Dr. Paul, would not hesitate to use force against the country to attempt to prevent them from acquiring such a powerful weapon.

Ron Paul basically said that there is no evidence that Iran has a nuclear weapon and even if they did, the United States did not have the right to attack.  He rightfully pointed out that the Soviet Union had nukes, many of which were pointed at our country for decades, yet we all survived the Cold War without any invasion.  He also pointed out that we just finished this little war in Iraq, which didn't exactly go too well.

Conservative have quickly forgotten that their braindead leader, George W. Bush, invaded Iraq on the premise that they had weapons of mass destruction.  A war that lasted nine years with over 4,000 dead American soldiers, tens of thousands of wounded Americans, roughly 150,000 dead Iraqis, with never any evidence of nukes or chemical weapons apparently didn't give any of these other candidates pause when considering attacking another country.  Iran, by the way, is triple the size of Iraq with more than twice as many people.  How do you really think we'd fare sending troops in to go find their nuclear arsenal? 

Michelle Bachman and the rest of these conservative clowns need to get a clue before they endorse another endless war.  They have learned absolutely nothing from history.  The reality is that the United States does not have the ability to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.  We may be able to slow them down, but it's inevitable that they will obtain one eventually.

Paul's response on Iran was somewhat rambling, but his overall point was correct.  We have no right to attack Iran, nor do we have the money or resources to be successful.  Has it ever occurred to columnists and television commentators that a good percentage of conservative voters follow Dr. Paul precisely because of his anti-war, non-intervention philosophy?  There are many, myself included, who agree with his position.  He may not always articulate his rationale clearly, but his message is the same.  The U.S. has overextended its military and is going broke as a result.  It has interfered far too many times in far too many countries, nearly all of which we had no business meddling in.  Congressman Paul simply wants that doctrine to stop before it's too late.

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Wednesday, December 14, 2011 - 11:16pm

Ron Paul's Path to the Nomination

Texas Congressman Ron Paul is rising in the polls, establishing himself as a top-tier candidate in Iowa.  The most recent data from Public Policy Polling (PPP) places him only 1% behind the leader, Newt Gingrich.  His ground organization in the state is far superior to both Gingrich and Romney, so he arguably only needs to be within the margin of error of the leader to claim victory.

If Paul can somehow manage to win Iowa, two things will happen.  He will get an immediate bump in the polls in New Hampshire and he will raise millions in new campaign funds.  Paul is currently running a strong third in New Hampshire, with about 19% of the vote.  He trails Romney and Gingrich, who are polling 32% and 24%, respectively.  He needs to close the gap ahead of the Iowa caucus, but that's entirely possible with his commercials on the air and an increasing presence in the mainstream media.  The cable news outlets have finally, if reluctantly, started talking about him regularly.  If he's close enough, a win in Iowa could propel him to success in New Hampshire as well.

After those two states hold their elections, the math gets a little more complicated.  Winning both Iowa and New Hampshire will boost his numbers across the country, but the GOP nominating process then moves to South Carolina and Florida.  Ron Paul is polling in the single digits in those states, as his message doesn't play as well in the conservative, deep South.  He is unlikely to finish near the top in either state.

The good news it that Paul doesn't need to win the South to win the Republican nomination.  That might not make intuitive sense, but Paul could focus on more independently-minded states to hit the required amount of delegates.  To that point, Paul today announced that he has opened five new state operation headquarters in Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, North Dakota, and Washington.

The path to a Ron Paul nomination means winning blue states and the ones considered toss-ups in a general election.  With his libertarian stance on foreign policy, I don't believe he has any chance in the southern states.  However, he can still place third or fourth and tally up a handful of delegates to his total, especially as other candidates drop out when the calendar progresses into 2012.

Paul's biggest problem right now is convincing the media that he actually could win.  Once they allow for that possibility, I can see him defeating this weak field headed by Newt Romney.

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Tuesday, December 13, 2011 - 8:50pm

GOP Attaches Oil Pipeline to Tax Plan?!?

If you ever wondered why Congress has such a low approval rating, look no further than today's ridiculousness.  Both the Democrats and Republicans are in favor of extending the payroll tax cut.  That should make the process of passing the measure pretty simple, right?  Oh, no!  Conservatives love cutting taxes, but not if it means liberals like President Obama get to take even a sliver of credit.

Instead of creating a straightforward plan to extend the tax cuts, House GOP members shoved a controversial oil pipeline proposal into the bill.  This could force the White House to veto the bill, as they don't agree with speeding up the process for the pipeline.  Of course, it would have to get through the Democratic controlled Senate first, which is highly unlikely.  Republicans know this, but they want to create the illusion that Democrats are refusing to extend the tax cuts.  Normally this would be true, but for once the pinko liberals are willing to cut taxes.  Unforuntaly, Republicans believe the underhanded tactic will allow them to score points against the president in the next elecion.

Only bumbing, Washington, D.C. politicians could screw this up and turn a simple task into a complicated one.  Just pass a clean bill.  It's not that hard.

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Monday, December 12, 2011 - 9:37pm

Mitt Collapsing on InTrade

The betting odds of Mitt Romney winning the Republican nomination are plunging on the gambling/trading website InTrade.  Only weeks ago, the site pegged his chances of victory at greater than 70 percent.  As of this morning, his probability of hanging around until November were down to 49 percent.  The difference is obviously Newt Gingrich.  The incendiary bomb thrower has come on strong since Herman Cain fell from grace and conservatives searched for a replacement.

If Newt can hang on to his massive lead until the end of January, this race will be completely over.  After winning Iowa, placing second in New Hampshire, then blowing away the field in South Carolina and Florida, conservative will coalesce around the man who has no shot of beating Barack Obama in the fall.

In the last ten years, the Republican party has given us presidential tickets comprised of George Bush, Dick Cheney, John McCain, Sarah Palin, and now Newt Gingrich.  With that lineup, it's amazing the Democrats haven't swept all fifty states in every election.

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Sunday, December 11, 2011 - 11:19pm

Romney Blows Debate

Well, if conservatives thought Mitt Romney would catch Newt Gingrich in time for the Iowa caucus, they could be sorely mistaken.  Mitt needed to do well in the latest debate and assail the new frontrunner, but he instead fell flat on his face.  By now you have heard of the bet heard round the world.  Good ole Mitt decided he wanted to bet Rick Perry $10,000 to prove he was wrong about an issue they were arguing.  If a normal person made the statement, it wouldn't register a bit of excitement.  However, because it came from the mouth of a politician, and an extremely wealthy one at that, it showed, I guess, how out of touch the former Massachusetts governor is with the voters.

The debate was supposed to feature attacks on Gingrich, but most critiques fell short and were easily swatted away.  When the issue of the Palestinians being an "invented" people came up, as Newt claims, the conversation turned into an dispute over who could support Israel the most.  What Romney should've focused on was Newt's propensity to throw gasoline on a fire and how his latest comments were par for the course for a man who doesn't have the temperament to be the leader of the free world.

That point is that all the challengers need to highlight this flaw in Gingrich's personality.  It would be very easy for Romney to compile a list of outrageous and disparaging remarks Newt has made over the years and run a quick spot illustrating his volatile nature and disposition.

We criticize Barack Obama for being calm and passive about nearly every topic.  However, those are the exact qualities that a president must possess, especially when dealing in foreign affairs.  With one statement about Palestine, Newt Gingrich alienated the entire Arab League of nations.  That should've been the takeaway from the debate, but instead the media will talk about Romney and his wager.

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Saturday, December 10, 2011 - 10:01am

Obama Approval Low, But Still Bests Gingrich

President Barack Obama's job approval ratings are extremely soft, with the latest Gallup poll giving him a 42% rating, while Rasmussen and the liberal CNN place him at 44%.  While not the absolute lowest of his presidency, they are skirting along the bottom.

Despite these disappointing numbers, every single poll still has President Obama beating Newt Gingrich in a head-to-head match-up for the presidency come November.  If the former speaker is to be the nominee of the Republican party, he certainly has his work cut out for him to have any chance of winning.  Even Fox News, one of the most conservative outfits, has Gingrrich losing by a comfortable margin.

Polls can change of course, but the speaker has been around for decades and is a relatively known quantity.  If anything, voters will be reminded of his many issues as the calendar moves from the winter into the spring and summer.  The Democrats and liberal groups will be sure to remind everyone that Newt has had multiple affairs, three wives, and ethics violations during his time in office.  Bad Newt will also fly off the handle with nonsensical and disgusting remarks, such as his recent comment on poor people not having the habit of working hard.

Conservatives might not like it, but the truth is that Mitt Romney gives them the best opportunity to take back the White House.  If Romney's not the GOP nominee, you can expect Barack Hussein Obama to cruise to victory and secure a second term.

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Friday, December 9, 2011 - 10:39pm

Donald Debate Disaster

Everybody is bailing on the world's most obnoxious, arrogant, clown Donald Trump.  The reality television celebrity was all set to host a debate of presidential contenders, until they all decided he wasn't credible.  It's worth noting that Ron Paul was the first Republican candidate to refuse the Donald, stating that it was beneath the office of the President to entertain questions from the egomaniac.  John Huntsman was also blunt in saying he refused to kiss the ring.  Michelle Bachman and Rick Perry are the latest to take a pass on the debate.

With only two candidates committed to the debate, Trump is now backpedaling and claims he may mount an independent bid for the Presidency.  Of course, he's just trying to save face.  He's no more serious about this than pretending he would run as a Republican. last year.  However, I'm sure the braindead media will follow him around like a puppy dog until he makes a "decision."  It seems the media has never quite figured out that Donald is using them to get on air.

Perhaps this joke of a human being will now retreat into oblivion, never to be seen or heard from again.  We should be so lucky.

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Wednesday, December 7, 2011 - 9:54pm

Has Newt Peaked?

The former Republican Speaker can do no wrong at the moment, as he's holding onto his remarkable lead in Iowa, South Carolina, and Florida.  He boasts a double-digit lead in all three states.  The only early state where he doesn't lead is New Hampshire, but he's narrowed Mitt Romney's margin to less than ten percent.  The question, however, is whether or not it's all downhill from here for the Gingrich.

Conservative voters have toyed with Michelle Bachman, Rick Perry, and Herman Cain.  This is simply Newt's turn at the top of a very bad heap.  If the Iowa caucus was ten days away, I'd say he could coast to victory, even with a non-existent ground game.  Unfortunately for the Gingrich, he has to hang on for four more weeks to get to Iowa, five for New Hampshire, and even longer for SC and FL.  By then, after some proper vetting, he'll slide back down toward the pack where he belongs.

Romney, the field, and most media outlets have yet to attack the frontrunner and force him to earn his lead position.  Nobody has touched his many illicit affairs or detailed his ethics violations from his time in the House.  They haven't mentioned that he's only running for President to sell more of his books and make more money.  That's why his campaign staff quit six months ago.  Newt wasn't taking the race seriously and was basically just showing up for the debates.

With a solid four weeks in the calendar before the first caucus, we can expect Gingrich to fall back.  He may continue to hold the lead, but it'll be down to single digits by January.  In a state like Iowa that relies on a significant ground operation, Newt will need to be comfortably above the margin of error to secure a victory.

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Tuesday, December 6, 2011 - 10:30pm

GOP Infighting on Newt Surge

This nominating process is beginning to look like four years ago when John McCain became the Republican candidate for President.  Like Senator McCain (AZ), the former Speaker of the House has many enemies within his own party that have no desire to see him win the nomination.  Already, Senator Tom Coburn (OK) has questioned his ability to lead the country and that Newt lacked good judgement.  Criminal mastermind Karl Rove has also come out swinging against Mr. Gingrich, hoping to knock down his poll numbers ahead of Iowa.  It's not just Coburn and Rove either.  The pitchforks are lining up against Newt from inside his own party...and many are still holding back.

McCain had his own problems and lost badly to now President Obama.  The same fate awaits Newt Gingrich.  While he may debate better than the President, his mouth will bury him long before any debates are scheduled.

Republicans are famous for getting their people in-line, but they failed in 2008 and are headed down the same road today.  Every time a conservative makes a negaive comment about Gingrich, you can be sure the Obama team will use it against him in commercials.  Imagine creating an ad showing GOP members tearing into Newt.  The list of conservatives will be long by the time both of the conventions roll around when the calendar hits August.

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Monday, December 5, 2011 - 9:36pm

Newt on Child Labor

The new Republican frontrunner is not standing down from his asinine and ignorant comments about poor people and child labor.  He's claiming the liberal left is spinning the story out of control, but I'll let you decide for yourself with his exact quote on the topic.

"Really poor children in really poor neighborhoods have no habits of working and nobody around them who works so they have no habit of showing up on Monday.  They have no habit of staying all day, they have no habit of I do this and you give me cash unless it's illegal."

Yep, the leading GOP candidate for the President of the United States actually said all that.  I almost don't even know where to start with this racist and disgusting remarks.  Apparently, poor people don't know how to work hard in the eyes of Newt Gingrich.  I guess only fat, rich blowhards got that covered.  Newt basically believes that poor people don't work at all, unless their involved in criminal activity.

This is all well and good if Newt was just some dumb, backwoods guy from Georgia with no involvement in anything important.  However, this man is running to be leader of the free world...and he's currently winning the race for his party's nomination. 

What does that say about the Republican Party...and our country?

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Sunday, December 4, 2011 - 8:39pm

Paul Holding 2nd in Iowa

The latest polling out of Iowa shows a rapidly evolving, three-way race between Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, and Mitt Romney.  The surprise is the emergence of Congressman Paul, who had been languishing in the 8-12% range for months now.  The libertarian-minded candidate has an incredibly loyal following and has the best ground-game in the State of Iowa by a wide margin.  Neither Mitt nor Newt have put much effort into the state until very recently, whereas Paul has been working the area since he ran for president four years ago.

These two polls were taken before Hermain Cain officially dropped out and all indications are that Gingrich and Paul's numbers will climb, while Romney will remain stagnant.  Furthermore, former Governor John Huntsman and Senator Rick Santorum supporters are likely to shift in the final days toward a candidate with a legitimate chance of winning the state.

With only four weeks to go before the caucus, Paul doesn't need to catch Gingrich entirely in state-wide polls.  He only needs to be in the ballpark.  The combination of Newt's lackadaisical effort in the state and Paul's time and effort on the ground could swing the numbers to the Congressman's favor.  I would estimate the difference is worth a five percent difference versus the polling.  Gingrich appears to be ahead by about eight points, so it looks like Paul has a little more work to do.

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Saturday, December 3, 2011 - 10:49pm

Cain Drops Out

The headline is no surprise as the king of sleaze finally came to his senses and dropped out of the race to be President.  I don't know why in the world he decided to run for the office with so many skeletons in his closet.  Did he really think sexual harassment charges and a 13-year affair would be kept a secret?  Not to mention his complete lack of knowledge on foreign policy.  Did he assume nobody would ask him a tough question on Libya or any international issue?  You'd think he'd have read up on a few things before pursuing this job.

Technically, Herman Cain suspended his campaign and didn't end it.  This is a scam politicians run so they can continue to raise money to pay off debt they've accumulated.  However, since these are all Republican candidates, I'm sure none of them have any debt.  Ha!  In actuality, all of the candidates except Ron Paul owe a ton of money in many different places.  Ironic, huh?

Early indications are that Cain supporters would move to Ron Paul or Newt Gingrich, which would be a blow to Mitt Romney.  The former Massachusetts Governor can't seem to poll above 25% anywhere, so he needs as many candidates as possible in the running to split the vote.  The real winner here is Gingrich.  Ron Paul could win or place in Iowa and New Hampshire, but his candidacy won't progress much beyond those small states.  Once he goes to South Carolina and Florida, Paul will get buried.

In the end, this move by Cain makes Gingrich one step closer to the Republican nomination.....which also means that Barack Obama is one step closer to winning re-election.

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Friday, December 2, 2011 - 10:00pm

Ron Paul Attempts Negative Newt Ad

Texas Congressman Ron Paul is out with a hard-hitting ad against front-runner Newt Gingrich.  The damning, 2 1/2 minute web spot tears into the former House Speaker as a serial flip-flopper and hypocrite.  The extended clip covers his changing view of global warming and healthcare, as well as his critique of Fannie Mae, while accepting $1.5 million as a consultant for the same firm.

This marks the first negative ad run against Gingrich in the campaign calendar, who has enjoyed a meteoric rise to the top of the national polls in the past few weeks. Unfortunately, the video misses the mark and appears poorly designed.  For a 150 second spot, it does not contain much information and rambles back and forth among a variety of points.  The incoherent nature of the ad is disappointing, as it could've easily been cleaned up.

It also uses multiple clips from MSNBC, an ultra-liberal cable channel.  That alone would make a typical conservative voter dismiss the video immediately.  That may work in a general election, but to throw liberals Ed Shultz and Joan Walsh into your argument to knock Newt out of the Republican nomination is not going to have any effect.  If anything, it will embolden the far right behind him.

Ron Paul made a mistake with this web ad, but not because it attacked Gingrich.  It was sloppy, way too long, and very dis-jointed.  If you're going to beat the new Newt, you're going to have to do much better than that.

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Thursday, December 1, 2011 - 10:06pm

Gingrich Dominating New Polls

The latest polls at the national level and in early voting states show Newt Gingrich running away with the Republican nomination.  What was looking like a Willard Mitt Romney coronation has now completely changed course to appear as though nobody will even give Gingrich a challenge. Obviously, much can change at the top and it seem to every other week, but we do know that many conservatives are dying to pick anyone but the flip-flopping Romney to represent their party.

The national survey above by Rasmussen, who has a conservative bent, does reflect a seismic shift in voter preference.  The second major set of polls below comes from the State of Florida, where Newt has a commanding lead over Romney, his closest competitor.

It remains to be seen if the former Speaker of the House can hold the lead, but with only five weeks to go in the calendar before the Iowa Caucus and no other respectable conservative emerging as a frontrunner, Newt could win by default. 

Gingrich's strategy right now should be to run out the clock, but he continues to do interviews, leaving himself vulnerable to slips.  Of course, he would then get slaughtered in a general election versus Barack Obama once people realize that he's a loose cannon.

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Wednesday, November 30, 2011 - 9:06pm

Redistricting Claims Frank

The Barney is finally leaving!  I know he announced his 'retirement' a couple days ago, but it still gives me great pleasure that the politician from my home district is finally calling it quits.  Thanks to redistricting in Massachusetts, the sleazy Congressman Frank didn't want to do any actual work to get re-elected.  Apparently, he would've been forced to campaign before hundreds of thousands of new voters (heaven forbid) rather than rely on the brainwashed folks that have casting ballots for him over the last thirty years.

If you're familiar with the original map of Frank's district, you'd see that it was completely rigged.  It allowed him to live in the affluent Boston suburb of Newton, while getting votes from the distant, downtrodden cities of Taunton, Fall River, and New Bedford.  Those small cities have heavy minority populations that tend to vote overwhelming Democratic.  They're the kind of areas that liberal politicians hate to live in, but love to have constituents.  The Barney loves his posh town, but would never get elected without the coastal cities to the south.

The new redistricting shown below splits Barney Frank's 4th district (green) in two, where the impoverished cities listed above roll into the 9th Congressional District (orange), leaving the career politician short of the guaranteed votes he craves.  The new map is still engineered as it separates the Republican towns into Democratic strongholds to eliminate any chance of getting a GOP Congressman anywhere in the state.  However, this time it was not to the benefit of Mr. Frank.

Massachusetts is the most liberal state in the country, so the map can be easily manipulated to ensure Democratic victory in all nine districts when the calendar turns to November, 2012.  The frightening part is that it's all perfectly legal as Governer Deval Patrick (D) just signed off on the deal.  Of course, Republicans take a similar approach in states like Texas, so we can't blame one side, but there needs to be some basic rules established surrounding this unethical practice.  Otherwise, our votes won't really count.

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Tuesday, November 29, 2011 - 11:27pm

Another Oops Moment

Rick Perry, this campaign's version of Sarah Palin, has really outdone himself this time.  Not only did he make a major goof, he actually made two major errors in one sentence.  While speaking before students at St. Anselm College in New Hampshire today, Perry made the following statement about voting:

"Those of you that will be 21 by November the 12th, I ask for your support and your vote."

Apparently, the Texas Governor doesn't realize that the voting age in America is 18 years old.  He must also not be aware that the general election is scheduled on the calendar for Tuesday, November 6, 2012, not six days later...on a Monday.

The man is clearly not ready for prime time.  It makes me wonder how in the world he got elected Governor of Texas in the first place, for three terms no less.  Then again, any state that would elect George W. Bush would vote just about any clown into office.  I suppose down in Texas, as long as you have an 'R' in front of your name, you will win over voters.

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Monday, November 28, 2011 - 10:19pm

Final Nail in the Cain Coffin?

Yet another woman has come out with allegations against presidential candidate Herman Cain, but this time it's not of the sexual harassment variety.  A Georgia woman named Ginger White contends she had an affair with the sleazebag for thirteen years, beginning in the late 1990's.  In fact, Ms. White implied that the relationship was ongoing until her admission today.  Much like the other accusations, Herman is going with the deny, deny, deny strategy.  He does admit to knowing the woman, but claims that he was just "friends" with her.  Yeah, ok!

In thinking about it, this is actually the least bad thing on Herman Cain's recent resume.  At least this sexual liaison was consensual.  All the other allegations were of the unwanted variety.  I guess after all the advances he made on the ladies, one of them was bound to take him up on the offer sooner or later.  What Cain didn't expect was for Ginger to sell him out and jump on television to spill the dirt.

The collection of salacious evidence against Herman Cain is overwhelming.  He really needs to drop out of this race before a half-dozen more ladies find their way in front of the camera.  He should know by now that he has no chance of winning the Republican nomination. Why torture yourself and your family any longer with all this dirty laundry?

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Sunday, November 27, 2011 - 10:14am

Getting Behind Newt

The Union Leader, New Hampshire's largest newspaper, has endorsed Newt Gingrich to be the next President of the United States.  It was by no means a ringing endorsement, as the declaration was followed by an explanation that appeared lukewarm at best.  Using words like "capable" and "best shot", the paper didn't argue strongly that Newt should be the next leader of the free world.  The authors sympathized with voters who were unsure of which Republican candidate to choose, but stated they didn't have to agree with an individual on every issue. They'd rather have someone they could disagree with than one who tells them what they want to hear (see Romney, Mitt).

The Union Leader claimed to not back candidates based on popularity polls, but they just so happened to endorse Gingrich as he's surging across many opinion polls and surveys.  He was nowhere near the top of the leaderboard a month ago.  If the publisher had any credibility, they would've bet on Newt back then when it would've been seen as unpopular.

Of course, the archaic newspaper conveniently didn't support anyone until the calender read late November, a mere six weeks away from the primary.  That gives them a better chance of being correct on the nominee, which is what it's all about anyway.  The paper is desperate to remain important to the process and if they pick the right guy, they can claim relevance for the next time around.

In the end, endorsements mean very little.  Voters are going to choose who they are comfortable with, regardless of whether or not they're backed by a random publication or individual.

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Saturday, November 26, 2011 - 11:01am

Obama Beats All Challengers

For all the talk about how horrible President Obama is for the country, voters would still re-elect him to a second term, no matter which Republican contender runs against him.  In a series of polls taken over the last month, only one poll against Mitt Flip-Flop Romney shows Obama trailing.  All other surveys pitted against Romney show Barack in the lead and not a single poll run versus Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain, Ron Paul, or Rick Perry has them winning when the calendar gets to the November elections.

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Wednesday, November 23, 2011 - 8:01pm

Another Flip-Flop by Romney

During last night's Republican debate on national security, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney once again flip-flopped on a major political issue.  This time the topic was immigration.  Last night he indicated that he would not give undocumented immigrants any form of legal status as it would incentivize even more people to enter the country illegally.  Romney referred to the idea as a magnet that would increase the problem.  However, while appearing on NBC's Meet the Press on December 16, 2007, he clearly indicated that he favored a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.  His quote was "those people who had come here illegally and are in this country...should be able to sign up for permanent residency or citizenship."

Romney has famously flip-flopped on nearly every important issue in American politics.  He was pro-choice before he was pro-life, he was for universal health care before he was against it, and he was in favor of tax and fee increases until he started running on the national stage.  The list goes on and on.  Heck, Mitt even flip-flopped on his own first name at the beginning of the debate. (It's actually Willard).

The reason Mitt's poll numbers have never been able to move higher is because nobody knows where he really stands on any topic.  Not only does that make him untrustworthy and a liar, it leaves voters confused about who it is they're casting a ballot.

His latest mistake in the national security debate will further amplify his propensity to change his opinion on literally everything.  This could be the impetus that causes his inevitable fall from the top of the leader board.  The question is who benefits if he slides.  My guess is that Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul would be the likely recipients.  Newt has already surpassed Mitt in a number of polls and could strengthen his lead if Romney keeps changing his position as the calendar moves closer to January.  Congressman Ron Paul has also been moving higher in the polls, albeit at a slower pace.

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Sunday, November 20, 2011 - 9:51am

Police Brutality Comes to College

A campus police officer pepper-sprayed a peaceful, seated group of student protestors at the University of California at Davis in a obscene use of force yesterday.  The deplorable act was caught on video camera nearby and showed a blatant disregard for the law.  When the thugs were done pepper-spraying, they picked the kids up by their t-shirts and dragged them away.

The braindead Chancellor of the school, Linda Katehi, spent most of her interview with Don Lemon of CNN discussing student unrest over the last few weeks, rather than the calling for the immediate resignation and arrest of the offending officer.  She also missed the obvious need to apologize to the affected individuals.  Students are calling for her own resignation, and I can see why.

The Chancellor was responsible for bringing police into the nonviolent situation and causing the confrontation.  Resignation is the least she can do, but first she must demand the police officer involved be held responsible for his actions.  If we let him get away with brutality, then it'll be carte blanche to greet every protest around the nation with unnecessary violence.

When are politicians and law enforcement going to learn that the best way to handle demonstrations is to ignore them?  Protests are allowed in this country, as they should be.  Last I checked we still live in the United States, land of the free.  That used to mean something, but you wouldn't know it lately with all the police crackdowns in multiple cities.  If I didn't know any better, I'd say we're living in the Middle East.

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Saturday, November 19, 2011 - 11:45am

Herman Does Letterman

Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain went on the Late Show with David Letterman last night to proclaim his innocence against sexual harassment accusations from four women.  Mr. Cain declared that all of them are lying and that the allegations are completely false. He also disputed the notion that there are four accusers, to which Letterman asks if perhaps it's actually 9-9-9 women.

Apparently, four isn't enough proof, because Herman stated that nobody else has come out to point the finger at him in the last two weeks.

It's amazing Cain is still polling in the double-digits in many of the early states.  However, when calendars turn to 2012, it'll likely be a different story.  Even without the sleazy, sexual harassment charges, this guy is a buffoon.  He can't answer simple questions about Libya or any important foreign policy matter.  His 9-9-9 plan is ridiculous, as it doesn't raise nearly enough revenue to run the government and it introduces a new, value-added tax.  The plan is completely rigged to the wealthy and would create even more disparity between rich and poor.  Furthermore, Cain comes across as the shady, slimy politician, which is sad considering he's never even held political office.  As a Washington outsider, you would expect someone more forthright. 

The question I have is do we really want this clown running our country?

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Thursday, November 17, 2011 - 10:30pm

Ron Paul Rising in Iowa

Nobody in the mainstream media will talk about it, but Ron Paul is climbing in the latest Iowa polls.  The ISU/Gazette/KCRG shows him in second place at 20% and Bloomberg News also has Congressman Paul in second at 19%.  The leader in both polls is Herman Cain, who is sure to drop after gaffes about Libya, multiple sexual harassment charges, and other foreign policy issues.  The Bloomberg poll reflects a four-way tie at the top between Cain, Paul, Romney, and Gingrich.

A few other polls show Gingrich surging with Paul steady near 10-11%.  The surprising part is not that both candidates are moving higher, but that the media refuses to even acknowledge that Ron Paul is in the race, let alone that he's being competitive.

While Ron Paul has almost no chance to win the Republican nomination, he could win a few states and he could conceivably pull out the victory in Iowa.  His ground campaign is backed by a very loyal following and he still has millions of dollars on hand to get his message out and further strengthen his position.

Now that Cain, Perry, and Bachman have all faltered, it appears voters are willing to give Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich another look with only six weeks left in the calendar before the Iowa Caucus.. Considering that Mitt Romney has spent very little time and money in Iowa, the door is open for another candidate to win.  If it happens to be the 76-year old Representative from Texas, the media will finally start talking about him...but only for a while.

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Wednesday, November 16, 2011 - 6:25pm

Romney Dominates On Intrade

The online trading exchange company that allows you to make predictions of future events shows Mitt Romney completely dominating the market, with a 70% chance of winning the 2012 GOP nomination for President.  The next closest candidate is Newt Gingrich, who can't even crack the 10% threshold.  Despite conservative nervousness of Romney as the nominee, the smart money is betting heavily on him cruising through the nomination process to go head to head with President Obama.

While this gambling website is not foolproof, the disparity versus other candidates implies that his nomination is virtually guaranteed.  His stock has been soaring since Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey decided not to run.  It further strengthened when Texas Governor Rick Perry bombed in the debates and later when Herman Cain's campaign began to implode.

The best and last hope to dethrone the former Massachusetts Governor lies in the hands of Newt Gingrich, whose poll numbers have increased as Herman Cain has declined.  However, the past Speaker of the House continues to trail badly in the early voting states.  In New Hampshire, Romney holds an average lead of 24.5% over Cain and 27.2% over Gingrich.  In South Carolina, he also trails Romney and Cain by a large margin.  The only early state where Gingrich is competitive is Iowa, but he again languishes in third place.

At this point, the nomination is clearly Romney's to lose.  If he plays out the clock over the next few months and is still leading when the calendar moves to February, he'll sail right through.

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Sunday, November 13, 2011 - 10:35pm

Police Confront Occupy Protestors

Law enforcement lost patience with the Occupy Wall Street demonstrators as they made a concerted effort across the country to clear the streets.  Authorities in Salt Lake City, Utah and Denver, Colorado took aggressive steps to squelch the activists, while police in Portland, Oregon became the most confrontational as they showed up in heavy riot gear to disperse the crowd.

If we're to believe law enforcement, the demonstrators refused to move off the street and onto the sidewalk and clear the road for cars to pass through.  They also have higher crime in the encampment area and an increase in drug overdoses.  The protestors would say that they are assembling peacefully to demonstrate against the rich and powerful.

Unfortunately, both parties are correct.  Everyone has the right to protest, but the tent encampments in cities around the country are also attracting criminals, drug addicts, and homeless people that have nothing to do with the Occupy group.  As the movement is completely disorganized, this was bound to happen.  There has never been any leadership to control who comes and goes.

What supposedly began as a protest against the excesses of Wall Street bankers has devolved into massive tent cities of homeless folks. However, a violent confrontation by the authorities is not the way to solve this problem.  Law enforcement would've been better served to wait these activists out until the crowd thins out over the next few weeks.  With temperatures dropping and the holiday season upon us, many so-called demonstrators would disappear.  Only then should the police have intervened to break up the remaining elements.

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Friday, November 11, 2011 - 8:24pm

Newt Surging, Cain Sliding

With nobody left to believe in, Newt Gingrich is rising toward the top of the latest national polls.  A newly released poll from CBS shows Herman Cain clinging to first place with 18% of the vote, but Gingrich and Romney tied for second at 15%.  The numbers reflect some serious weakness for Romney and Cain, but marks the first time Newt has been mentioned among the leaders.  In a similar poll by McClatchey/Marist, the leader is Romney at 23%, but Gingrich stands alone in second at 19% with the womanizer pulling up third at 17%.

The numbers show a lack of conviction by Republican voters as they struggle with the incredibly poor field of candidates.  Mitt Romney can't seem to break 30% in any poll, yet is the presumed frontrunner for the nomination.  Rick Perry had the lead for a moment, but his lack of intelligence, preparation, and continuous gaffes have doomed his candidacy.  Herman Cain showed promise in the debates, but after four women accused him of sexual harassment, he is now starting the inevitable slide back down to the pack.

Now it's Newt's turn under the spotlight.  His serious and thoughtful answers in the debates have moved him up from single digit land to challenge Romney.  The former Speaker of the House does comes with a lot of baggage, three marriages, and many affairs.  He's also been around for decades and many voters have grown tired of his act.

In the end, this is Mitt Romney's nomination to lose.  January is coming up fast on the calendar and the field is unlikely to challenge him by the time the Iowa caucus rolls around.  Each will take his turn, but will falter as the glare of the national media will uncover all their warts.

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Monday, November 7, 2011 - 10:45pm

And Then There Were Four

Just when you thought Herman Cain had survived the onslaught of anonymous women accusing him of sexual harassment, another one comes forward today and faces the cameras to boot.  Sharon Bialeck, a Chicago area woman who wanted a job in Cain's restaurant association, is claiming that he groped her after a dinner fourteen years ago.  She stated that the leading Republican presidential candidate put his hand on her leg under her skirt and pushed her head toward his lap.  Although Mr. Cain stopped when she asked, Bialeck also alleges that he said "You want a job, right?"

Bialeck maintains that she went public to give a face to the many unidentified individuals who have levied accusations against the former pizza executive.  She wants Cain to come clean and admit to his despicable actions.  Of course, this incident is only Bialeck's word against Cain's, but a continuous flow of women charging him with sexual harassment is sure to doom his presidential ambitions.

According to the latest national polling from USA Today/Gallup, Mitt Romney and Herman Cain are tied for the lead, with Gingrich and Perry in a distant third and fourth, respectively.  Cain is still leading in Iowa by a comfortable margin, but with two months to go before the caucus, it'll be very difficult for him to hang on.

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Wednesday, November 2, 2011 - 11:00pm

Cain Accusers Number Three

Another day, another woman coming out to accuse GOP candidate Herman Cain of sexual harassment.  I have been inclined to give him the benefit when these allegations first came to light, as it was suspiciouly leaked the second he rose to the top of the polls.   However, now we have three different women coming forward to complain about his unwanted advances, aggressive conduct, and inappropriate gestures. Whether it was leaked by an opponent or not, it does look increasingly like a pattern of behavior by the upstart presidential candidate.

At least two of these women reached monetary settlements in the five figure range.  They signed confidentiality agreements as well, but if they are allowed to break them and speak publicly, it might doom the Cain candidacy.  You might be able to dismiss one isolated case as a misunderstanding between two adults, but if we have three confirmed incidents of harassment by Cain, he has a major problem.  Even his conservative backers would have a hard time dismissing all the allegations. 

The calendar can't get to January fast enough for Herman Cain.  He leads in many of the polls, but we're two months away from the Iowa Caucus and there seems to be a new charge every day.  That said, the third woman was anonymous and could easily be a political opponent attempting to smear Cain.  That wouldn't explain the first two accusations, but the piling on may be political posturing.  God only knows the vultures are out trying to destroy the man.  Just turn on MSNBC and you can see watch the liberal clowns falling all over themselves to trash him and every other Republican candidate.

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