Latest Polls Show Significant Trends

POLITICAL CRITIC

If tyranny and oppression come to this land, it will be in the guise of fighting a foreign enemy.

- James Madison

Friday, November 3, 2006 - 12:00am

Latest Polls Show Significant Trends

The battle for control of the Senate is starting to come into better focus. Some new polls have been released that show some challengers fading away and others coming on strong.

Bob Corker has pulled ahead of Harold Ford Jr. by 10% in Tennessee, according to Reuters/Zogby. Corker leads 53-43 in that poll and leads in two others as well. Looks like those racist/sexual ads against Ford are working.

Claire McCaskill is ahead by 3% in Missouri according to Reuters/Zogby and also holds a slight lead in Rasmussen and Survey USA. The direction of the polls is important and she holds a small edge right now. Perhaps Michael J. Fox was able to help her by just enough. We'll see.

The trend is also good for James Webb in Virginia. Webb has trailed throughout the whole race, but is now ahead in the last three polls. The lead is small, but the trend is clear. In CNN, Rasmussen, and Reuters/Zogby, Webb leads by 4%, 5%, and 1%, respectively.

Montana has been considered a seat the Democrats would be able to pick up, but the trend is not good for Jon Tester. He has been ahead all year, but his opponent has closed the gap to within the margin of error. It will be a lot closer than people originally thought.

On the Democratic side, New Jersey and Maryland are at risk, but it looks like the Democratic candidates should be able to hold on.

What this all means is that the Democrats may take six seats and regain control of the Senate. The key is for James Webb and Claire McCaskill to win. There are still four days to go, so things can change, but right now I'd have to predict that the liberals get the six seats that they need. I will give a Monday night prediction when all the polls are in, but this is where we stand today.

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